Single Midlife PSA Test May Predict 20-Year Prostate Cancer Risk:
Single Midlife PSA Test May Identity Long-Term Prostate Cancer Risk | MedPage Today New Evidence Supports Risk-Stratified Screening BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): A major German study published February 3, 2026, found that men with a PSA below 1.0 ng/mL at midlife face very low prostate cancer risk for the next 20 years—just 3.3% cumulative incidence—suggesting these men could safely reduce screening frequency and avoid unnecessary biopsies. Combined with 23-year follow-up data from Europe's largest screening trial showing a 13% mortality reduction, new FDA-approved blood tests, and updated guidelines for high-risk populations including Black men, the evidence increasingly supports personalized, risk-based screening strategies that maximize early detection benefits while minimizing overdiagnosis harms. A Breakthrough in Risk Stratification For decades, prostate cancer screening has been caught in a dilemma: PSA testing saves lives by detecting cancer early, but it also leads to...